Europe's airlines locked in cheap fuel. It didn't save their shares, and it runs out in 2027

Short answer: fuel hedges saved Europe’s airlines billions, but not their shares. Five of Europe’s biggest airline groups went into the 2026 oil shock with two-thirds or more of their fuel bought in advance at pre-war prices. The five biggest US airlines had nothing hedged. At the worst point, both groups’ shares were down about 23%. And most of Europe’s cover runs out in 2027, while oil is still near $100 a barrel. The real test is next year, and this page tracks it live.

The split

Five of Europe's biggest airlines hedged 67–82% of their fuel. The five biggest US airlines hedged none.

Share of upcoming fuel use locked in at a fixed price, from each airline's latest results before October 4, 2026

Hedged: Europe

Lufthansa, Ryanair, IAG, Air France-KLM

75%of fuel hedged (average)

Worst point

−22.8%

Shares since Feb 27

−8.3%

vs STOXX Europe 600

−7.9 pts

Unhedged: US

Delta, United, American, Southwest, Alaska

0%of fuel hedged

Worst point

−22.7%

Shares since Feb 27

−0.9%

vs S&P 500

−13.2 pts

Averages per airline. easyJet is left out of the share figures because takeover bids, not fuel, drove its price from July.

1. The shock

Source: Yahoo Finance (BZ=F). Event dates: Wikipedia, 2026 Iran war fuel crisis.

US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, and Iran’s retaliation, cut off most tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude went from $72 a barrel on the last close before the strikes to a peak of $118 on March 31, 63% higher. Jet fuel rose even more than crude. A conditional ceasefire on April 8 brought prices back down to pre-war levels by early July, but they climbed again over the summer. On October 2, Brent closed at $102, still 41% above where it started.

Fuel is one of an airline’s largest costs. A fuel hedge fixes part of that cost in advance, usually with futures, swaps or options, so a price spike hurts less (and a price drop helps less).

2. Who was hedged

Sources: each airline's latest quarterly results or filing before Oct 4, 2026 (links in Methodology).

The split is complete. Lufthansa, Ryanair, easyJet, IAG and Air France-KLM had 67% to 82% of their upcoming fuel hedged. The gains were large:

• Ryanair’s hedges cover 80% of its fuel to March 2027 at about $67 a barrel. Its unhedged fuel cost about $150 a barrel in April to June.
• easyJet had hedged 79% of its July–September fuel at $786 a tonne, when the spot price was $1,275.
• IAG booked €769 million of hedging gains in the first half alone. Air France-KLM expects $1.6 billion for the year, Lufthansa about €1.5 billion.

None of the five US airlines had any hedges. United’s stated policy is not to hedge. American had no fuel hedging contracts outstanding at the end of June, and says each extra cent per gallon adds about $50 million to its annual bill. Southwest, long the best-known hedger in the industry, closed its program in 2025. Alaska stopped in 2023. Delta also has no hedges on the fuel it burns, but it owns an oil refinery near Philadelphia, which works as a partial natural hedge: when jet fuel margins rise, the refinery earns more.

3. Hedged or not, the shares fell the same

Source: Yahoo Finance daily closes, Feb 27 – Oct 2, 2026. * easyJet's rise reflects takeover bids, not fuel.

Hedges protect an airline’s fuel bill, so hedged airlines should have fallen less. They did not. At the worst close, the four hedged European groups (easyJet aside) were down 22.8% on average, and the five US airlines 22.7%. Almost identical.

By October 2, the US group was roughly back where it started (−0.9% on average), while the European group was still down 8.3%. On these raw numbers, the airlines without hedges did better.

easyJet is the exception, up 47%, but that comes from rival takeover bids in July, not from fuel. It is shown but left out of every average.

4. A small edge, once markets are taken out

Percentage points. Source: Yahoo Finance daily closes (^GSPC, ^STOXX), Feb 27 – Oct 2, 2026. easyJet is left out (takeover bids).

The raw numbers flatter the US group, because its home market did much better: since February 27, the S&P 500 rose 12.3%, while the STOXX Europe 600 ended flat (−0.4%). Against their own market, the hedged Europeans lagged by 7.9 points on average and the unhedged US airlines by 13.2 (20.4 without Delta and its refinery). So hedging bought a small edge, not a shield: Lufthansa, the most hedged at 82%, did worse against its market than United, with no hedges at all.

5. The open question: protection, or just a delay?

Hedges are bought months or years ahead, so they always run out. Europe’s cover drops sharply next year:

• Ryanair: 80% hedged to March 2027, then 15% (at $85 a barrel, not $67).
• easyJet: 62% for October 2026 to March 2027, then 37%.
• IAG and Air France-KLM: about 40% for 2027. Lufthansa: just over 50%.

Brent is still around $100. If it stays there, European airlines will pay war prices for most of their fuel in 2027, a year after US airlines did, and possibly while US rivals are already passing the cost on through fares. If oil falls, the unhedged US airlines get the full benefit at once, while the Europeans stay locked into their hedges.

Did hedging protect European airlines, or only delay their pain by a year? The answer will show up over the next 12 months, so this page tracks it live: one airline for each scenario.

Tracker: Lufthansa, Ryanair and United

• Lufthansa has the most fuel hedged for 2027 among the five Europeans: just over 50%.
• Ryanair has the least: 80% until March 2027, then 15%. Its cheap fuel runs out first.
• United has none, and no refinery either. It is the largest US airline with a stated policy not to hedge.

If oil stays high, Ryanair should feel it before Lufthansa, while United has already lived with war prices for months. If oil falls, United should benefit first. Each share price is frozen at the last close before this post (Friday, October 2, 2026), and the live price loads every time the page opens. Shares are in their home currency (euros for Lufthansa and Ryanair), and the comparison is in percent, so currencies do not distort it. Each share also follows its own stock market, as section 4 showed, so read the gaps between the lines rather than any single line.

Lufthansa LHA.DE

At publication

€7.60

Oct 2, 2026 close

→

Now

…

Loading live price

Difference since publication

…

Ryanair RYA.IR

At publication

€23.79

Oct 2, 2026 close

→

Now

…

Loading live price

Difference since publication

…

United UAL

At publication

$112.51

Oct 2, 2026 close

→

Now

…

Loading live price

Difference since publication

…

Source: Yahoo Finance daily closes. Live data refreshes on page load.

What the numbers leave out

• Hedge periods differ. Each airline reports cover for its own nearest period: a calendar half-year, a fiscal year or a quarter. The percentages are the closest comparable figure, not an exact match.
• Hedge quality differs. Lufthansa hedges partly with crude oil and gasoil, which do not track jet fuel exactly. When jet fuel rose faster than crude, part of the risk stayed open; its CFO said this “highlighted certain limitations”. Options-based hedges also cost a premium upfront.
• Share prices are not profits. Share prices react to everything at once: fares, demand, debt, takeover talk. This study does not try to isolate the effect of fuel.
• Ten airlines is a small sample. Group averages can be moved by one company, as Delta shows.
• Currencies. Each share is measured in its home currency; the euro and pound against the dollar are not adjusted for.

Data

* easyJet: takeover bids from Castlelake and Apollo in July 2026 moved the share price; it is left out of group averages.

Download the dataset, with hedge ratios, periods, share moves and a source link for every airline: airlines.csv.

Methodology

• Hedge ratios come from each airline’s latest results or filing before October 4, 2026, as the share of expected fuel use hedged for the nearest reported period:
  • Lufthansa Group: Q2 2026 results presentation, August 4, 2026 (82% for the rest of 2026, as of July 27). 2027 cover and the €1.5 billion hedge gain: CFO on the Q2 2026 earnings call.
  • Ryanair: Q1 FY27 results, July 20, 2026.
  • easyJet: Q3 FY26 trading update, July 23, 2026 (positions as of July 20).
  • IAG: H1 2026 earnings call, July 31, 2026, for the hedge ratios (stated by the CFO); H1 2026 results for the €769 million of hedging gains.
  • Air France-KLM: Q2 2026 results, July 30, 2026.
  • Delta: Form 10-Q for Q2 2026. United: Form 10-K for 2025. American: Form 10-Q for Q2 2026. Southwest: Form 10-Q for Q2 2026. Alaska: Form 10-K for 2025.
• Share prices and indices: daily closes from Yahoo Finance via yfinance (unadjusted for dividends), each airline on its main listing: Frankfurt (LHA), Dublin (RYA), London (IAG, EZJ), Paris (AF) and New York. Markets: S&P 500 (^GSPC) and STOXX Europe 600 (^STOXX). The base is the close on Friday, February 27, 2026, the last trading day before the strikes; the end is Friday, October 2, 2026. “vs market” is the share’s change minus its region’s index change over the same days, in percentage points.
• Oil: Brent front-month futures (BZ=F) from Yahoo Finance. Event dates from Wikipedia’s article on the 2026 Iran war fuel crisis.
• Excluded from averages: easyJet, whose share price since July reflects takeover bids from Castlelake and Apollo.
• Tracker: one airline per scenario: the most fuel hedged for 2027 (Lufthansa), the least (Ryanair, 15% from April 2027) and none (United, the largest US airline with a no-hedging policy and no refinery). Their publication-day prices were saved with yfinance; live prices come from a small server function that queries Yahoo Finance when the page loads.
• Code: plain Python scripts (collect.py, analyze.py, snapshot_stocks.py). They save every filing and results document locally, and each hedge figure is stored next to the exact sentence it was taken from.
• Trademarks: airline names are trademarks of their respective owners. This site is independent and not affiliated with or sponsored by any airline mentioned.